Some thoughts while we wait for A.J. Brown's future to be decided...
• The internet rumor mill wants to believe the Eagles and Patriots have a deal worked out to trade Brown to the Patriots. A) I have no evidence of that. B) If it's for picks in this year's draft, what are they waiting for? C) If it's for 2027 draft picks and won't be official until June 2nd, why not announce it now? D) If it's for this year, but the Patriots are going to make picks for the Eagles and trade the rights of those players later, that is really complicated.
I don't believe anything has been agreed to. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me in the least that Denver's Jaylen Waddle trade (basically a first and a third) has further entrenched Eagles GM Howie Rosemanin his asking price in a similar ballpark. And I don't think the Patriots want to go there. So the game of chicken continues.
• I mean, Jeff McLane of the Philly Inquirer told usthat a top NFL executive said to him that Brown's trade compensation should be a third-round pick.
• Things could definitely ramp up at the NFL annual meeting, which starts Sunday in Phoenix.
• I'm sure the Maxx Crosby situation complicates things, considering the state of Brown's knees (PFT reported the Rams backed off because of that), but I'd keep an eye out for the Ravens jumping in on Brown. Sure seems like they could use someone like Brown, unless you're enamored with Rashod Batemanand his 17-game average of 42 catches for 570 yards and 4 TDs.
• The Eagles' acquisition of Hollywood Brown doesn't have anything to do with AJ Brown. As Zach Berman of The Athletic pointed out: "Jahan Dotson left in free agency. Outside of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, the only receivers on the roster are Darius Cooper, Johnny Wilson, Britain Covey, Quez Watkins and Danny Gray."
• I'm not in favor of the Patriots trading for A.J. Brown, but I wouldn't hate it — depending on the compensation. It's not like he's a bum or anything. The Patriots will probably get about two good years out of him, but I think he is a declining player. I'm sure he'd have a period of rejuvenation being around Mike Vrabel, but he's lost speed. He's pretty much just a hitch, back-shoulder, and physically big receiver at this point. I don't think the Patriots need Brown at this point, and there are people in the building who are just fine with what they have and want to see what kind of internal improvement they get.
• The Patriots are expecting players to improve, the run game to get better, and the pass protection for Drake Maye (not to mention his own improvement in Year 2 with Josh McDaniels) to get better. That's where the offense will improve and be better against better defenses.
• If the Patriots pay the freight for Brown – especially with 2027 draft picks (more in a minute) — I'm going to become increasingly worried that Vrabel is developing a blind spot for his former players. Everything the new regime has done to this point, including bidding former Patriots adieu, has made a lot of sense — except when it comes to former players Harold Landry, Kevin Byard and, possibly, Brown.
Year 1 was about plugging gaps in the short term but with an eye on developing the future roster. Despite durability issues, Landry got two years of good money for his age and production. Even if the Patriots found someone better than Landry, he was going to be here for two years. Out goes K'Lavon Chaisson and Anfernee Jennings, and Landry remains.
Even though I have no problem with the deal or player, the Patriots could have retained Jaylinn Hawkins at free safety, but opted for 33-year-old Kevin Byard. At least it's only for one year. But he's definitely slowing, despite the misleading seven INTs he had last year (Byard had seven in the previous five years combined). Is Byard younger, faster and cheaper? Again, I would have made this deal, but it needs to be pointed out.
• And that leads us to Brown. Vrabel has admitted he has stayed close with Brown, who was one of his favorite players. But Vrabel hasn't coached him since 2021. He was in Philly (4 seasons) longer than he was in Tennessee (3 seasons). Vrabel never coached a Brown who had gotten paid. Brown made $4.4 million with the Titans. He's made $87 million with the Eagles. That can change a lot of things, including a coach-player dynamic.
There's also the issue with Brown's knees, which now two teams (Titans and Rams) have balked at. Would Vrabel overrule the Patriots' doctors because he "knows what makes Brown tick"?
Would Vrabel overpay for Brown — similar to Landry — because of his relationship? Shouldn't Vrabel look at negotiating with Romeo Doubs and Brown the same, calculated way? Would he? Obviously, we don't know the answer, but the questions need to be raised.
• If the Patriots do the Brown trade, I want it done now, and I don't mind parting with the 31st pick, but I'd rather it be a combination of a 2nd and a pick swap later. What I am NOT doing is trading primo capital in the 2027 draft.
What became apparent during free agency this year is how much teams covet draft picks for next year. The strategizing for the 2027 NFL draft already is underway. Cc @tyschmit. 🎧 https://t.co/lcsVT8162f pic.twitter.com/SF5BgE1a2H— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2026
Next year's draft is being talked about as a generational draftwith possibly several top quarterbacks available (Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, Trinidad Chambliss, LaNorris Sellers, etc.), which would push top talent further down the draft board.
With a much tougher schedule this season, and the prospect of the Patriots' remarkable injury luck in 2025 going the other way in '26, it's not outlandish to think the Patriots could be a borderline playoff team in '26. The two AFC Teams that barely missed the playoffs last season (Ravens, Colts) had the 14th and 16th in this draft. In a generational '27 draft, that would mean another franchise foundation player who would join recent top picks Christian Gonzalez, Maye and Will Campbellin anchoring the Patriots' present and future. The Patriots are going to pass on that for a 29-year-old big receiver with bad knees who appears to be declining? If they did, all the Patriots' talk about building this the right way, and how it was only 307 days at the Super Bowl, would be a bunch of malarkey. They would be falling into the trap many wannabe contenders have fallen into countless times over the years (hello, Commanders) in that they like the smell of their own farts, and truly believe they have arrived as perennial contenders.
To this point, the Vrabel regime has done everything the right way. You could even see the wisdom in the deals for Landry and Byard, although the latter one is pushing the envelope a bit. Giving up real compensation for Brown, especially in 2027, would be something entirely different. They would be going for it, and going against everything they've preached since they got here. Acquiring Brown had better work — on a Lombardi Trophy level — or the ramifications could ruin all the good work done up until that point.
• At this point, I would be more in favor of seeing what the draft produces, possibly looking at a lower-cost acquisition with upside (like Brandon Aiyuk- hey, if Vrabel is so good at reaching players, let him go work his magic), and then seeing how the season plays out ahead of the trade deadline. If the Patriots are headed for another late first-round pick because things are going well, use the ammo to get the missing piece — and it might not be at receiver. It could be at edge, or the offensive line if there's an injury, or tight end.
The Patriots' offense produced just fine last season in the first year of the system. See how the development goes. See if the pass protection is better, and if an improved running game opens up the passing offense a little bit more. That's been the plan. There's no reason not to stick with it, at least for now.
