Running through where the Patriots are after the first two waves of free agency, including:
• How did they do? • Thoughts on Romeo Doubs, Kevin Byard and Julian Hill; • Where the team is financially, and what could happen as it relates to A.J. Brown; • Some of Eliot Wolf's tells; • And are the Patriots largely done?
The first couple of waves of NFL free agency are over, and now it comes down to, if the team chooses, plugging some gaps with short-money free agents so they're not beholden to filling holes before the draft.
To this point, I think the Patriots did a very good job improving their roster. Is it perfect (edge, receiver)? No, but they did well in maximizing the cash available to them.
We're still waiting on a few contracts (Byard, Hill) to nail down exactly how much 2026 cash the Patriots have spent this offseason, but using high estimates, the Patriots have spent about $65 million. Before the offseason started, I predicted the Patriots would seek "a balance between cutting back on spending, Kraft allowing more leeway with the budget, and the departure of some players to give the Patriots somewhere in the vicinity of $50-60 million in cash to spend this offseason." So not too far off. The Patriots basically doubled their cash budget, with cash going out the door (Stefon Diggs, Garrett Bradbury, Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings). Bradbury and Jennings were mild surprises, but you can see the thinking (Jared Wilson and a high draft pick).
The Patriots maximized the cash available to them. They saved money and got a lot younger, going from Diggs to Dobbs. Dre'Mont Jones is better against the run and has more upside rushing the passer in this scheme than K'Lavon Chaisson. A healthy Alijah Vera-Tucker, with a definite injury risk, greatly improves the offensive line, and Wilson should at least give you what Bradbury did in Year 1, with a much higher ceiling. Byard is an upgrade over Jaylinn Hawkins, and Byard needs zero runway to acclimate to this scheme. Hill's blocking gives Hunter Henry a chance to be much better in the pass game for the entire season (Henry looked worn down by all the blocking at the end of the season). Reggie Gilliam, and Hill, should help solve all the short-yardage and red zone running issues.
Basically, everything I thought the Patriots needed to do this offseason, they've done or it could be coming in the draft.
My offseason checklist:
Identify the identity of the offense - CHECK
Get more physical on offense - CHECK
RT in draft - Likely coming via draft
Physical and imposing LG - CHECK
Drafting future starting G - Likely coming via draft
Real veteran FB - CHECK
Good blocking TE - CHECK
Offensive TE in draft to replace Henry - Likely coming via draft
Speed option on the boundary - Not checked, but it's a draft option
Edge - So-so, but I do think they’re OK for now pending the draft
Free safety in FA and one in the draft - CHECK, and we'll see
The Patriots have no glaring weaknesses in their lineup today. And the Patriots did all of that with $65 million cash. Do the Patriots now have the chance to be a better team in 2026, the schedule notwithstanding? I think the answer is a definitive yes, pending health. Shouldn't that be the goal every offseason?
• Updated depth chart/team needs (external link):
• It's pretty eerie how predictable the Patriots' spending turned out to be. In the last CBA three-year period, 2021-23, the Patriots ended up +$6.5 million cash over cap. This time? +$10.6 million.
The Patriots have spent about $50 million less cash than last offseason. After being +$48 million cash over cap the first two years of this three-year cycle, the Patriots are -$36.2 million cash over cap this season.
• The big question, with A.J. Brownstill out there, is whether the Patriots are done at this point?
Obviously, it's impossible to know without being in the room, but my answer would be, I think they're mostly done and are content to see how the draft falls to them with receiver, offensive tackle and edge all high up on the draft priorities list.
The Patriots do still have interest in Brown, but are content waiting out the Eagles. The Patriots would be fine going into the season with what they have on offense. My feeling is the Patriots know Brown is miserable with the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, and there aren't many teams that can tolerate that.
Can the Patriots pay for Brown? Of course they can. But it would either take money going out the door (Christian Barmore and Mike Ownenu would basically match Brown), or Robert Kraft approving a special expenditure. I don't think it would be a stretch (no pun intended) for Vrabel to feel that, after this past season (as opposed to Bill Belichick's spending spree in 2021, Vrabel actually used the 2025 money wisely), he can whisper sweet nothing in RKK's ear and get whatever he wants.
• Catching up on some film watching, and we'll get more in depth with each player in the next month:
WR Romeo Doubs: Reminds me of Jakobi Meyers in this offense in terms of his smarts, ability to make tough catches, route running and willingness to block — but Doubs is faster, has another gear to get vertical, and has quicker feet to get off press coverage, especially in the red zone. Doubs should be a perfect fit for this offense.
S Kevin Byard: Played mostly free safety for the Bears, with the bulky and slower Jaquan Brisker next to him. I do wonder if Byard will ultimately be a free safety here due to his slowing at 33 (in August). But that will be hashed out on the practice field and early in the season. The Patriots' safeties are interchangeable, and Craig Woodson can do both. I do think most of Byard's seven interceptions last season were overrated. Two were great route recognition against the Raiders on the same dig route, but the other five were an assortment of Joe Milton being Joe Milton, and desperation heaves rolling out and/or under pressure.
TE Julian Hill: Wouldn't call him an extra offensive tackle, but he's big and strong. What really stands out is that he never takes a bad angle or loses leverage, and Mike McDaniel really liked to put him on the move. You could time him with a sundial on vertical routes, but he's available on short hitches.
• I think Hill and Gilliam will help to maximize what TreVeyon Henderson can be. Remember when Sony Michel basically needed James Develin to do anything? Henderson, at this point, needs an escort to figure out where he's going.
Also, Henderson is the type of back who needs a great line to give him that 2-3 foot hole to then maximize his speed. It sort of reminds me of a smaller DeMarco Murray with the Cowboys. He was a so-so speed back, and then the Cowboys put together one of the best lines in league history, and he was all-world (1,845 rushing yards in 2014, his fourth year).
• Some of the more interesting quotes from Wolf with the New England media last week:
"I mean, it's no secret we'd like to keep Christian Gonzalez, and I don't know what the timing of that is, but that's something that certainly we're preparing for."
That sure sounds like it's part of next year's budget — the Patriots still have the fifth-year option at their disposal to factor into negotiations — but it could also mean the Patriots will get to that after free agency and the draft.
(Asked if they had money to trade for a certain Eagles receiver) "I'm not going to talk about a specific player that's under contract with another team, but we're happy with the guys that we signed. And, you know, we think we've improved our team."
Wolf is playing the game, not appearing to be desperate. But I do think the Patriots really like where they are, and are content to go into next season with what they have. They are anticipating improvement from guys like Will Campbell, Wilson, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams, and Efton Chism. But if the price is right on Brown, they would do it with RKK's blessing.
